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Consumer Spending Outlook: Holiday Prices Skyrocket, Spending Contracts amid AI-Driven Retail and Banking Boom

Consumer Spending Outlook: Holiday Prices Skyrocket, Spending Contracts amid AI-Driven Retail and Banking Boom

MetricCurrent ValuePrior Reference Expected holiday‑price rise77 %69 % (2024) Planned holiday spend (average)$1,595$1,778 (2024) Core CPI (annual)2.9 %8.3 % (Aug 2022) Grocery‑price growth YoY+2 %– Rent YoY+27 %– Price‑expectation scores have risen 8 percentage points year‑over‑year while average holiday spend

U.S. Spending Contraction, AI Boom, Tariff Shock

U.S. Spending Contraction, AI Boom, Tariff Shock

1. Consumer‑Spending Dynamics U.S. retail‑sales growth for September 2025 contracted 1.1 % YoY (inflation‑adjusted) and the average basket size fell 2 % YoY among small‑business merchants (Fiserv Small‑Business Index). Early‑season shopping is now front‑loaded: 65 % of adults plan to start holiday purchases before