Can a $1B Gaza Board Bring Peace Without Hamas—or Will Syria’s Oil Ceasefire Expose the Illusion of Peace Without Power?
TL;DR
- U.S. Backs Gaza 'Board of Peace' Plan Excluding Hamas, Demanding $1B Per Member State Amid Palestinian Outcry
- Syrian Government and Kurdish SDF Agree to Ceasefire, But Clashes Resume Over Control of Raqqa and Deir ez-Zor Oil Fields
⚖️ Can a $1B Per Country Gaza Board Bring Peace Without Hamas?
The U.S.-backed $1B/Gaza-member ‘Board of Peace’ excludes Hamas, sparks global friction. 6 nations joined. Israel objects. Palestinians reject it. Can reconstruction succeed without political inclusion? #GazaReconstruction #BoardOfPeace #MiddleEastPeace #Geopolitics #HumanitarianAid
The U.S.-backed Board of Peace (BoP), launched in January 2026, proposes a $1 billion one-time contribution from each participating nation to fund Gaza’s reconstruction—excluding Hamas from governance. Six nations—Hungary, India, Jordan, Greece, Cyprus, and Pakistan—have confirmed membership. The BoP, chaired by Donald Trump, aims to oversee infrastructure rebuilding, demilitarization, and civilian administration via a Palestinian technocratic committee.
Funding mechanics are tiered: permanent seats require $1 billion (or $1.5 billion for enhanced advisory rights); non-paying seats must deliver $1 billion within one year or forfeit their term. With 60 nations invited, full participation could yield $60 billion—close to the estimated $70 billion reconstruction cost. But only 30–35 states are projected to commit by mid-2026, risking a $30–35 billion shortfall.
Israel opposes the BoP, citing lack of coordination with its security apparatus. Hamas and Palestinian civil society reject it as a Western-imposed structure that erases political agency. Humanitarian groups warn of opaque fund allocation; UNRWA and the Red Cross have not received detailed spending plans.
The BoP bypasses the UN Security Council, prompting EU concern over precedent-setting fee-based governance. France and the Netherlands seek seats to influence compliance with international law, while Hungary sees it as a new diplomatic lever. The EU may propose a joint oversight panel to preserve UNSC legitimacy.
Pilot projects—water treatment and 5,000 housing units—are scheduled for July 2026. Full reconstruction targets 70% housing restoration by December 2027. Yet without Hamas’s inclusion, security coordination with the International Stabilisation Force remains fragile. Sporadic attacks by PIJ or Hamas could derail implementation.
The BoP’s success hinges on funding scale and legitimacy. Without inclusive political buy-in, even well-funded projects may fail to stabilize Gaza.
| Key Risk | Impact |
|---|---|
| Funding shortfall (<30 contributors) | $30–35B vs. $70B need → only core utilities funded |
| Hamas exclusion | Security vacuum, localized violence, de facto control retained |
| EU withdrawal from parallel aid | Fragmented donor coordination, reduced long-term sustainability |
| Israeli non-cooperation | Delayed ISF deployment, restricted access for reconstruction |
⚖️ Syria's Ceasefire Is a Oil-Driven Power Grab, Not Peace
Syria's ceasefire isn't peace—it's a $1.2B/month oil grab. SAA + tribal militias seized Al-Omar, Al-Hasakah, Al-Tharwa, Safyan. SDF stripped of revenue. U.S. offers no protection. 150K displaced. Ceasefire = administrative takeover. #Syria #OilWar #KurdishSDF #MiddleEast
On 19 January 2026, Syria’s interim government and the Kurdish-led SDF signed a formal ceasefire, pledging administrative integration and SDF withdrawal east of the Euphrates. Yet within hours, clashes erupted over control of four key oil fields: Al-Omar, Al-Hasakah, Al-Tharwa, and Safyan. The Syrian Arab Army (SAA), backed by Arab tribal militias, seized these assets on 18 January, securing an estimated $1.2 billion monthly revenue stream—nearly doubling Damascus’s pre-war oil income.
The ceasefire’s 14-point framework promised SDF integration into state ministries and demilitarization of Kobani and Tabqa. In practice, SDF administrators were replaced by state-appointed governors, and thousands of civilians were displaced from Raqqa and Deir ez-Zor as SAA and tribal forces fortified checkpoints. No U.S. troops remain on the ground; U.S. envoy Tom Barrack endorsed the deal but offered no security guarantees, signaling a pivot from military support to diplomatic recognition.
Tribal militias now control 78% of the Euphrates oil corridor, enabling Damascus to bypass Kurdish governance structures. This is not integration—it’s territorial consolidation under a revenue-driven strategy. The SDF, stripped of its fiscal lifeline, cannot sustain autonomous administration. Yet forced relocations and unresolved jurisdictional disputes ensure continued low-intensity conflict.
Oil revenue is now Syria’s primary leverage: export volumes are projected to rise 30% in Q2 2026, enhancing Damascus’s bargaining power with Turkey, Iran, and Iraq. Without a binding revenue-sharing mechanism or international enforcement, the ceasefire is a tactical pause—not a peace.
The human cost: 23+ dead, 150,000 displaced since 18 January. Civilian displacement may hit 50,000 per day in coming weeks as SAA encircles remaining SDF outposts.
What’s Next?
- SAA to fully encircle SDF-held oil outposts by mid-February
- Formal SDF absorption into Defense Ministry delayed by tribal vetting
- U.S. sanctions unlikely unless civilian deaths exceed 100 in 30 days
- Turkey and Iran monitoring border crossings for illicit oil flows
The ceasefire holds on paper. On the ground, it’s a resource transfer with a peace logo.
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