Bitcoin Drops Below $80,000 as ETF Inflows Reverse
Bitcoin fell below $80,000 on Oct 24 as US spot ETFs shed about $773.5M over two sessions, transmitting redemptions into spot selling while mostly long positions unwound. The week ending Oct 23 still finished roughly $301.2M net positive, so whether ETF demand returns remains open.
Bitcoin traded near $79,859 on October 26, after slipping below $80,000 on October 24, with reported intraday lows between roughly $79,107 and $79,263 (247wallst.com; blockonomi.com; altcoinbuzz.io). Exposure sits with holders funding US spot Bitcoin ETFs, calendar-spread derivatives traders, and leveraged longs carried above spot.
The proximate trigger was a two-session reversal in ETF demand, not a change in Bitcoin's supply. US spot Bitcoin ETFs shed roughly $635.5 million on October 22 and $137.9 million on October 23 — about $773.5 million combined (crypto.news; coinpaper.com; altcoinbuzz.io). That followed $1.0747 billion of inflows Monday through Wednesday, leaving the week ending October 23 net positive by roughly $301.2 million (bitcoinfoundation.org; financefeeds.com).
Redemptions, forced closures, and the flow arithmetic
ETF redemptions require the fund to sell spot BTC, transmitting withdrawals into market orders. BlackRock's IBIT posted a $254.1 million outflow on October 22 and a further $110.3 million on October 23; Fidelity's FBTC fell $217.5 million on October 22 and $31.8 million on October 23 (247wallst.com). Coinbase Institutional characterized ETFs as the market's primary demand source as traditional buyers lost influence, citing negative Coinbase premiums in October (cointribune.com).
That selling met a leveraged book. Reported liquidation totals vary by outlet and window — roughly $404 million, $670 million, and $834 million across different 24-hour measures — with long positions accounting for 83% to 95% of closures in each (financefeeds.com; cryptopotato.com; altcoinbuzz.io). A separate CoinGlass window to about 09:30 UTC+8 on October 23 put 24-hour liquidations at $332.79 million, of which longs were $277.60 million, or 83.4%, across 80,154 traders (altcoinbuzz.io). These totals are per-report and not reconciled with one another.
- Oct 22: US spot Bitcoin ETF outflow $635.5M; IBIT −$254.1M, FBTC −$217.5M
- Oct 23: Additional $137.9M exits; IBIT −$110.3M, FBTC −$31.8M; 24h liquidations $332.8M (83.4% long)
- Oct 24: BTC breaks below $80,000; reported 24h liquidations $404M–$834M, mostly longs
- Oct 26: BTC near $79,859
A cryptoslate.com account from October 8 separately described a $1.16 billion liquidation day with Bitcoin near $80,000 on a different date, illustrating how sensitive these totals are to the window measured.
Cost basis, amplifiers, and what is not established
Glassnode placed recent buying between $80,000 and $81,500 and a market-wide reference near $77,600 in October 21 research, while Coinbase Institutional flagged the $80,000–$82,000 zone as overlapping ETF cost basis near $81,300 and the 50-day average near $81,700 (crypto.news; coinpaper.com). Coinbase warned that losing $80,000 could expose $73,000–$75,000; Peter Schiff separately called $75,000 the next level (coinpaper.com; blockonomi.com). These are attributed projections, not established outcomes.
Macro and geopolitical conditions acted as amplifiers rather than proven causes: Brent crude above $117 a barrel, the 10-year Treasury yield moving between about 4.96% and 5.3% across reports, September CPI of 3.7% year over year, and a Fed decision scheduled for October 27–28 (e27.co; 247wallst.com; crypto.news). 247wallst.com separately measured Bitcoin's 21-day correlation to Invesco QQQ at 0.67 — a correlation, not evidence of a common driver. Draft assertions about Iran-related tensions and embassy evacuations, and about 30-day relative performance versus gold and Ethereum, are not carried here because the supplied evidence set does not establish them.
Outlook and the decisive unknowns
The week's net stayed positive because early inflows exceeded the two-day exit (bitcoinfoundation.org; news.leodex.io). Bitcoin traded approximately 36% below its October 6 record of $126,080 and 2.9% below its 20-day average (news.leodex.io; 247wallst.com).
The Fed decision is the near-term test; reports cited expectations of a hold with December hike odds between 68% and 79% (cointelegraph.com; cryptopolitan.com). Whether ETF flows turn positive again after October 23, and whether spot holds $80,000 or $77,600, remains unresolved. No report in this window confirms deposit, payment, or credit-system stress beyond the crypto market itself.
Separately, stablecoin market capitalization fell $12.73 billion from May 22 through late October, with USDC shedding $4.69 billion over 30 days and accounting for about 80% of a $5.82 billion net decline among 13 tokens, while Falcon's USDf rose $511.16 million (news.bitcoin.com). The same account notes declining stablecoin supply may signal reduced buying power, but cautions that disappearing stablecoins may not equal an exit from the market.
